By Sean Patrick Ryan, aka The OilKnight

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I’ve spoken in great length over the years about a system that I use to evaluate prospects eligible for the NHL draft. Admittedly, it has been revised many times as the pro game changes and the “ideal” prospect’s measurables vary from year to year. What I’ve never done is dedicate an entire article to the subject. So, I’ve decided to take the time and give you the reader, insight into how I evaluate prospects, and attempt to illustrate what makes me different from so many of the “online” scouts you may be familiar with. I’m not exactly re-inventing the wheel here. But, I do feel the quality of scouting has been diminished (especially on Twitter) by so many enthusiasts, due to a lack of basic fundamentals & historical research. Name dropping with a 45 second clip seems to be the new fad on social media, where everyone has an opinion and anyone can be an “expert” on the subject after watching a couple highlights. Hence, this article.

For this exercise, I focused primarily on the Canadian Hockey League as a whole as it is what I am most familiar with. However, I’m confident the information I have provided holds true for any league. There are certain things I have always looked for in prospects, and things that give me pause in my viewings. Too often, these online “experts” paint best case scenarios for every single prospect which just isn’t realistic. I’m not saying they should be negative by any means, but if there isn’t even a bit of critical analysis, meaning no indication of weaknesses or areas where the prospect needs to improve on, then it’s incomplete analysis. Anyone can glorify highlights – prove to me you’ve seen that player play more than a single period and are capable of critical thinking.

So after several months of self-reflection, I’m come to the realization that there are 7 key components to my system that I continuously gravitate towards when I do my scouting. Again, this system isn’t perfect and isn’t for everyone – but this is my perspective when evaluating NHL draft eligibles.

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1.  Ignore the Consensus

Those who know me well, know I am a bit of a contrarian by nature. I like to challenge the general consensus and form my own opinions. Now, that’s not to say I do it just to be different (maybe a little). I honestly feel I look at scouting thru a different lense than many based on the system I’ve instilled and traits I value. If I end up being wrong, then so be it. But, I have strong opinions and usually stick to my guns because I know what I am talking about. Nowadays, everyone and their brother wants to be recognized as a draft expert so a lot of shortcuts are taken and echo chambers are formed. Many are affiliated with a few large groups on social media too, so I pride myself on being independent and not easily influenced.

Quite honestly, I almost completely ignore “draft enthusiasts” draft lists during the year unless I’m looking for sheer entertainment. How some of these internet folks pawn themselves off as experts on every single player from every single league (ie. they live in Brooklyn with their Mom but are an OHL expert) literally makes me laugh out loud. Plenty of pretenders out there so beware. There’s a reason why NHL teams employ “Regional” scouts. Even paid professional “draft analysts” can’t possibly properly assess everyone from every league.

The consensus is boring, lazy and really lacks that critical thinking quality I like in my reports. Too many people piggyback off each other and it shows. I like to be original and will continue to do so regardless of what everyone else thinks.

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2. Don’t strive for best case scenario with every prospect. Accept the fact that some will underwhelm or bust out completely.

In other words, do some research and keep it real. This one is tough for many draft amateurs online. They all want to talk about the good things they see in a prospect and completely dismiss the obvious and glaring weaknesses. “Sure, he isn’t a great skater, has a shaky 200 foot game and a questionable work ethic, but he scored 100 points in Junior!!!” Potential and ceiling are all that seem to matter to some. Well, history tells us that no matter which draft year you choose – you will find at least a few busts and plenty of underachievers even in the Top 15 of any draft year (for many of the reasons I outline later). That’s the 15 best of the 210+ players (Top 7%) and yet it’s still no sure thing who will actually justify their draft rankings several years later.

Look at those original draft positions and re-draft order. How could that be? I thought the consensus Top 10 players were the most skilled & talented players? 🤔

Junior is not the NHL. How a prospects game TRANSLATES TO THE NHL is what really matters. https://t.co/ty3Gy7QY8I

— ☘️🏒 Sean Patrick Ryan 🏒☘️ (@TheOilKnight) May 9, 2020

Some prospects, despite their faboulous puck skills or size/speed combination, are going to underwhelm as pros. It’s a fact. So I accept it and look for reasons WHY that might occur ahead of time. Some still struggle and cannot comprehend how a guy like Lucas Raymond (for example) COULD possibly bust, when there are have been plenty of prospects just like him in the past who have done just that. Magnus Paajarvi the next Peter Forsberg? All it takes is even just a little bit of research, and you can find players who were as highly productive and touted as the ones today and never made it. Be open-minded.

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3. Use historical data to put their production into context.

Before evaluating NHL translatable skills and red flags, it is important to rank a prospect’s production based on the league they’re in. That gives you context in terms of how they rank versus their peers – both past and present. From there, you can rank them in tiers using historical data to help you determine their ceiling. Here is a great model I have been using for years and am constantly updating (age not factored in). The left column is every single NHL player in the last 10 years who has hit 84 points or more in an NHL season – and their respective draft year pts/game in Junior. Only those drafted out of the Canadian Hockey League are listed here.

From this example, you can clearly identify the tiers and what distinguishes the elite players in the NHL from the rest – they had elite production in Junior. The rest of the left column comprises of NHL stars and Superstars who averaged between 1.13 & 2.25 pts/game in the CHL their draft year and 84 or more points in an NHL season. It’s a bit of a large gap but if nothing else, it proves that production in Junior does matter to some degree when projecting a Prospect’s ceiling as a pro. Brad Marchand is the lone exception in the last 10 years with a 0.97 pts/game average in Junior.

The far right column is a list of other recent Top 5 picks over the last 10 years for comparison. You’ll notice there are several examples of busts or underachievers who had similar production to the Stars and Superstars in the bottom two tiers. However, many of those prospects failed to live up to their draft status and achieve similar offensive success to those in the left column (at least to date). That’s why emphasizing Junior production is important, but can be a disastrous mistake if that is the only thing you really rely on in your evaluations. This goes for every league in the world.

Remember, Junior production is great in terms of identifying elite qualities and projecting a ceiling. But, it can also be misleading if you don’t factor in how their game TRANSLATES to the NHL and any red flags that are also prevalent. You don’t get to take those Junior points with you to the pros – the counter resets to zero. A general rule of thumb I use (assuming certain tiers for production are met):

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“I typically don’t care HOW MANY points a player gets in Junior, I care HOW they got them.”

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4. Identify NHL translatable skills, and distinguish between a Junior and Pro style game.

I’ve talked a lot about NHL translatable skills and red flags in the past, and how I like to incorporate them into my overall rankings. Combing thru old scouting reports online, there were several things that constantly came up that the players who didn’t succeed – all had in common. I refer to these as red flags. Subsequently, if you look at all the great players in the NHL they all have a few things in common – elite traits. That’s the bar I use in terms of NHL translatable skills. Now, some very good prospects have overcome some glaring weaknesses and still became bonafide NHL‘ers. Others, still are good pro players despite the red flags (mainly consistency). But overall, the majority rules over the few exceptions and the draft history supports that.

What do all the elite players in the NHL have in common? They’re faster, smarter, more skilled and work harder than the rest. That’s what makes them the best. So, when scouting prospects it’s natural to look for those traits in young 17 year olds. No one trait is better than the rest and the more of these a prospect possesses – the better. The NHL translatable skills I value the most are as follows:

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Forwards:

• Elite hockey brain (aka hockey sense or hockey IQ – Great awareness, anticipation, process game quickly under pressure, make good decisions)

• Terrific skating (speed, acceleration, agility, edgework, backpedal)

• Highly compete level (great work ethic or “motor”, consistently play with determination, relentless pursuit of puck, constantly working hard to get better on and off the ice)

• Elite shot/release and/or elite playmaking ability (Whether it’s a blistering shot, dynamite release or outstanding puck skills, most if not all the star players in the NHL possess at least one of these high end qualities).

Defence (in addition to above):

• Elite Puck moving / puck rushing (breakouts, zone exits, joining the attack)

• Two-way ability (providing offence without sacrificing too much defensively, shut down defensively with ability to provide some offence)

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As far as distinguishing between a Junior and Pro style game goes, there absolutely is a difference. NHL defenders are bigger, faster and smarter than in Junior. All the fancy, high risk plays some forward prospects get away with as 17 year olds, comes back to bite them in the pros if they don’t clean up their game. Just ask Nail Yakupov.

Same thing for offensive defencemen who love to cheat for offence, sacrifice defence, and get away with it in Junior. They can become defensive liabilities as pros and ultimately exit the league early. Just ask Ryan Murphy (29 goals, 79 points in his draft year) about that.

Which means adaptability is also an important ingredient to success.

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“If a high scoring prospect in Junior can’t make it as a consistent Top 6 offensive player in the NHL, does he have the tools to adapt?”

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The ones capable of adjusting their game to a more pro style can still carve out a role in the NHL (Ryan Strome, Jonathan Drouin, Radek Faksa). While others are strictly Top 6 or bust (Nail Yakupov, Mikhail Grigorenko, Kerby Rychel). Determining a prospect’s full list of NHL translatable skills (not just production) helps with this exercise.

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5. Look for Red Flags and don’t underestimate their significance.

Go back over all the NHL draft busts over the years and see if you can pinpoint exactly what some of their weaknesses were that ultimately determined their underwhelming career. I guarantee you they had at least a couple of these red flags in their game in Junior that were never properly addressed and negatively impacted them in the NHL. Question is, did any draft pundits even bother to bring those up at the time? It’s important to do so, otherwise it is incomplete analysis.  ______________________________________________________________________________

RED FLAGS

• Lack of puck skills (raw talent that never developed, one-dimensional “power forwards”, stay at home defencemen)

• Poor hockey sense/low hockey IQ (decision making, awareness, turnovers)

• Inconsistent or poor compete level (sub par work ethic on and off the ice, from game to game or shift to shift, gives up too easily, lazy.)

• Lack of quality skating/speed (inability to keep up to NHL pace)

• Poor 200-foot game (reliability, play away from puck, defensive liability).

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How many successful NHL‘ers do you know are poor skating, defensive liabilities with limited puck skills and an inconsistent work ethic? All it takes is one or two of these and it could be enough why a prospect doesn’t make it. So why are they so often swept under the rug or dismissed completely?

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Here is a scouting report from a few years back on a player who went Top 5 in the NHL draft. See if you can guess who it is:

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That player was Sam Bennett. Now, if you read just that report you would think he’d be a guaranteed star in the NHL by now, but that hasn’t been the case. After 5 NHL seasons, Bennett is a bottom 6 forward who’s averaged about 28 points a season. Considering he was taken right after Leon Draisaitl (who is coming off back to back 100 pt seasons), it is safe to say more was expected of Bennett at least at this point of his career.

Now to be fair, this wasn’t the only glowing report on the 4th overall pick. After all, he was a consensus Top 5 NHL pick so most people had nothing but great things to say about him (I worked nights that season so my hockey viewing was limited). But nowhere in this report or several others that I read, were there any mention of any potential red flags. Did draft evaluators over-project his NHL translatable skills, or did they struggle with determining the difference between a Junior and Pro style game? Did they dismiss any red flags they might have seen because of his Junior production? Or did they simply not look hard enough? Either way, my point is that potential red flags do matter and should be part of the evaluation process – otherwise, it is incomplete analysis.

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A couple other good examples of high draft picks who’s obvious Red flags were downplayed or overlooked in favour of Junior Production: Nail Yakupov (low hockey IQ, poor 200 ft game), Robbie Schremp (poor 200 ft game, work ethic, skater), Magnus Paajarvi (inconsistency, 200 ft game), Griffin Reinhart (footspeed, puck skills). Sorry Oilers fans. 😬

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6. Incorporate other variables like size, age, usage, ice time, quality of teammates, quality of play.

The last main part of the formula attempts to factor in context into the equation. Let’s face it, not every league is the same and every team these kids play for are different. Some who put up a lot of points are too big for their league, while others are told they are too small to make it as pros. Some are given all the offensive looks and opportunities, while others are asked to shoulder key defensive responsibilities as well.

So a lot of this is just guesswork. I try to treat every situation different and look for potential reasons why some people might be sleeping on certain prospects, and while others are overrated. Context is a big part here. 

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Good team vs. Bad team

A good example of context is when comparing a high scoring player on a Top team, versus a top player on a bad team. In 2010-11, Ryan Strome put up 106 points on a 45-17-0-6 Niagara team, while Mark Scheifele scored 75 points on a 15-49-0-4 Barrie Colts team. Which was more impressive? 

Strome at the time was seen as a dynamic player with the puck, but had his warts away from it. He struggled fighting through checks and his work ethic was spotty at times (red flags). Scheifele, was seen as more of a reliable, 2 way forward with a great work ethic and who fought through checks (NHL translatable skills). Who do you think was drafted first? Strome went 5th overall and Scheifele – 7th overall. Who would go first in a re-draft today?

Now this isn’t meant to beat up on Strome. I actually quite like him as an NHL player and he seems like a high character kid. He did a lot to adjust his game and be an impact player in the league. I wish Edmonton didn’t trade him away. But this is a good example of how teams overlooked red flags, relied too much on production, and overvalued the good TEAM he played for. 

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A couple other instances in the Top 15 where I think NHL GM’s got it wrong:

2013

(3rd) Jonathan Drouin – 105 points for (58-6-0-4) Halifax Mooseheads

(6th) Sean Monahan – 78 points for the (16-46-0-6) Ottawa 67’s.

2018 

(5th) Barrett Hayton – 60 points for (55-7-0-6) Soo Greyhounds

(12th) Ty Dellandrea – 59 points for (20-43-0-5) Flint Firebirds

The last comparison is still to be determined as far as the outcome but you get the idea – not every situation is the same so try not to get swayed by the record of the team the prospect plays for. Hayton did play a 3rd line role a lot for the Soo that year for the record, which leads me to my next point.

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Usage

This is a big one for me because I feel like this one is quite often overlooked by those who don’t follow each team’s situations closely enough (how could you possibly for every single team in every single league?) A good example from the 2017 draft:

Gabriel Vilardi (11th overall) was selected ahead of Robert Thomas (20th) because Vilardi was bigger (6’3″, 200), had more production (61 pts in 49 games) and was viewed as having the higher offensive ceiling. Now while the book is still out on Vilardi (he’s had injuries), I tried to emphatically point out that people were underestimating Thomas due to his usage & NHL translatable skills. I was so adamant about it that it was my first official article for this site titled: Why Robert Thomas is my favourite prospect in this year’s draft. 

While Vilardi was the #1C in Windsor and getting all the prime offensive looks, Thomas was the #3C in London for at least half the season. He was taking all the defensive zone faceoffs and was their top penalty killer. It wasn’t until London was struggling and they acquired Mitchell Stephens, that Thomas was promoted to the Top line – a spot he never relinquished. 

After that, Thomas went on to win an OHL Championship a year later for Hamilton (he was traded for 16 yr old Connor McMichael) where he was MVP, and has won a Stanley Cup with St. Louis as an integral part of their Championship run. He is a terrific young player in the NHL already, with plenty of upside. But, he went 20th overall I believe, partly because his usage (especially in the 1st half of the season) wasn’t factored in thus his final numbers (66 points in 66 games) were seen as somewhat underwhelming. In a re-draft today, he’s probably a Top 5 pick. 

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Size

The last variable I want to touch on is size. There are more prospects who bust or complete underwhelm as 1st and 2nd round picks due to their “good size” than anything else. Subsequently, if you look back over the last 10 years and look at all the prospects who went in later rounds and still managed to find success in the NHL, the majority of them didn’t have “ideal size”. That makes this trait the most overrated concept in hockey scouting for me.

Gone are the days when having a 6’5″, 220 lb stay at home defenceman was seen as a luxury. Those guys are pylons now in today’s NHL. Sound positioning, stick placement and gap control trumps the physicality big d-men used to bring. And the 6’3″, 200 lb, one-dimensional power forwards who just crash and bang in goals are a dying breed too. Today’s NHL‘er needs to keep up in the skating department, and display the necessary work ethic to compete with the best in the world. Otherwise, all that drooling over their size/skill combination and “potential ceiling” will be nothing but a dream.

Recent examples of players drafted higher than they probably should have been because of their “good size & strength”: ______________________________________________________________________________

Samuel Morin (6’6″, 200), Logan Brown (6’6″, 220), Logan Stanley (6’7″, 242), Dylan McIlrath (6’5″, 225), Michael Dal Colle (6’3″, 200), Nick Ritchie (6’2″, 200), Haydn Fleury (6’3″, 200) and so on and so on……

Meanwhile, there are so many examples of “undersized” players who were drafted probably later than they should have:

Brad Marchand, Johnny Gaudreau, Vincent Trocheck, Alex DeBrincat, Brayden Point, Jonathan Marchessault, Brendan Gallagher, Conor Garland, Samuel Girard. They were all underrated because of their lack of “ideal size & strength”. What evaluators couldn’t measure – the size of their will and determination ON TOP of their skill, is what made them true NHL’ers.

So size for me is OVERRATED. Strength matters a bit (regardless of size) but that can be developed through proper training. Compete level & work ethic are easily more important. Those are the players I would be targeting in later rounds. Kids with skill – and the will, regardless of size.

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Ceiling / Potential

This isn’t an official thing I really look for but more of a sum of several other variables like usage, ice time, quality of teammates and quality of league. Everyone likes prospects with perceived “upside” and potential. How a person defines that is what I’d be concerned with. 

The problem with projecting a player’s high ceiling is there is a chance they might never hit it. So, if a team drafts a player who is a bit raw but has a “massive ceiling” or “high potential” they are gambling more on skill development than current skill proficiency. There’s certainly risk involved that the prospect never puts it altogether and falls short of lofty expectations. How many years is it going to take for their hands or brains to catch up to other already developed prospects? I’ve seen so many examples of kids labelled as “raw potential” and “huge upside” that never amounted to anything as pros.

Projecting a ceiling is assuming weaknesses will clear up and the prospect will achieve their maximum potential. “Once he improves his skating”, or “once he becomes a better 200 foot player” he’ll surely be a star. No guarantees that happens and in fact, quite often those assumptions never come to fruition. In Junior, if a kid doesn’t work hard defensively, or from shift to shift game to game, what makes you think he’s going to do when he gets to the pros? He’ll have financial security at that point so won’t have to work as hard to get there.

It’s hard to teach a lazy player to work hard. Just like it’s hard to teach an inconsistent player to be more consistent. If a player is “raw” it means they’re not good enough yet in those areas and there is a chance they might never get there. So while “potential ceiling” or “upside” are intriguing, I’d be careful in how they are defined.

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7. Trust your Gut

Look, I have a system I swear by and it works. It’s not perfect, but it’s done me well over the years. People online can argue all they want about my rankings, or how I come about them. They can fight to the death over their favourite prospect and sub-tweet me all night long. Doesn’t sway me in the slightest as I trust my instincts. I like smart, quick, skilled players who have strong work ethics and play a reliable 200 ft game. Robert Thomas, Ty Dellandrea, Philip Tomasino, Noah Dobson, Jamie Drysdale are some of my favourite prospects in the last 5 years.

Subsequently, I’m not a huge fan of poor skaters with questionable work ethics who play a more Junior style game. Gabriel Vilardi, Arthur Kaliyev, Ryan Merkley, and Jérémie Poirier are a few that come to mind. That’s just how it is.

Scouting is subjective anyways, so different opinions should be well received but that isn’t always the case. Just remember: ______________________________________________________________________________

“An opinion doesn’t need to be a popular one in order to be valid. Especially when it comes to hockey.” 

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It’s nothing personal, I honestly want all these kids to succeed. I’m simply critiquing their profession and projecting how they might perform as professionals. The reality is, many won’t live up to their draft hype as history has shown and I blame the evaluators almost as much as I blame the actual prospects. So I trust my gut and do my best to provide as accurate assessments as possible – both positive and negative. Call them educated guesses if you will.

The truth is, I’m still an unpaid amateur but I enjoy scouting very much and I’d like to think I’m pretty good at it. I certainly don’t just throw darts at a board and make stuff up, there is a method to my madness. I don’t take myself too seriously and I know for a fact I’ll be dead wrong on some which is the beauty of scouting – it is subjective. But, I thought it would be nice to provide some insight into how I go about doing my evaluations, and perhaps others could share their own experiences. Hope you enjoyed it.

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The OilKnight System:

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1. Ignore the consensus
2. Don’t strive for best case scenario with every prospect. Accept the fact that some will underwhelm or bust out completely.
3. Use historical data to put their production into context.
4. Identify NHL translatable skills, and distinguish between a Junior and Pro style game.
5. Look for Red Flags and don’t underestimate their significance.
6. Incorporate other variables like size, age, usage, ice time, quality of teammates, quality of league.
7. Trust your gut.

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To comment, please do so via Twitter @TheOilKnight

By The OilKnight

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If I’ve said it once I’ve said it 1000 times – scouting is subjective. You could watch a prospect for 10 games straight and I could watch that same player during a different 10 game stretch and we could form completely different conclusions based on our separate viewings. That is the beauty of scouting. No one can tell you with 100% accuracy how a prospect is going to ultimately perform as a pro – it’s all subjective.

Just so you have context when evaluating this Top 31 list, I project IN ORDER who I think will have the greatest NHL impact and career. It’s not a mock draft and it’s not a “who had the best junior stats” list either. I ignore the “general consensus” and form my own lists completely by how I project these prospects will perform at the NHL level. My list is also comprised of critical analysis which at times may rub people the wrong way, but it’s important to note that none of this is personal. It’s simply a critique of soon-to-be professionals on their profession, and how I envision that translating to the NHL level. If they were all guaranteed to be stars there would be no reason for such analysis. However, history tells us that despite all the glowing reports & sparkling numbers a prospect may put up as a 17 year old – it still doesn’t guarantee they will be stars as a pro.

If you have followed me for awhile on social media, you’ll know I highly value what I call NHL translatable skills when it comes to scouting prospects. In particular, the most important to me are: Skating (speed/agility/acceleration), Smarts (also known as hockey IQ or hockey sense), Playmaking (passing/stickhandling/creativity), Shot (release & accuracy), and Stats (production). I also lean heavily towards players with a high compete level. Some call it determination, work ethic or “motor”. If a prospect is a great skater, with a high hockey IQ, excellent playmaking ability or big shot, & a relentless work ethic, odds are I’m going to be a fan of his game. Stats are important but typically I don’t care HOW MANY POINTS a player gets, I care more about HOW they get them. I use tiers in terms of production and work from there based on the translatable skills.

On the flipside, I also factor in Red flags in my analysis and penalize a player’s ranking accordingly. Let’s face it, not EVERY SINGLE prospect drafted in the 1st round all make it. Typically, if you go back over the years you can point to a few things that directly caused the player to fail at the NHL level. All the top prospects had skill & Junior production, but likely also had red flags that were underestimated or ignored. The red flags I look for: Lack of compete level (poor effort, lazy, loses too many battles), poor skating (including speed), poor decision making (low hockey IQ), Inconsistency (takes shifts & games off), and too much flashiness.

Now the last one is a much debated topic among draft enthusiasts. For me, NHL players are too good to fall for the behind the back, spin-o-rama, no-look passes that many prospects can get away with in Junior. Sure, it might work the odd time but it’s more likely a player like that will become a turnover machine – which drives coaches crazy and gets you stapled to the bench. So, skill & creativity is definitely a good thing, but TOO MANY unnecessary low percentage, high risk plays are a red flag for me because they don’t translate well to the NHL usually. Really, that falls under decision making. And I don’t care what anyone says, there is ABSOLUTELY a difference between a “Junior style game” and a “Pro style game”. Just because a prospect has a monster Draft+1 year doesn’t mean they are automatically going to succeed at the next level.

So that’s how I come up with these rankings. Keep those in mind when reviewing the list. I’m confident this year probably more than ever having viewed countless games in all 3 Major Junior leagues, Europe and the U.S. now that most of these Top 31 will all be drafted in the first 2 rounds of the 2020 Draft. Again, this list isn’t necessarily where I think each player will be drafted in order but who ranks as the best prospects in terms of potential NHL impact down the road. 

Lastly, I also want to add and give a shout out to my good friend Yannick St. Pierre, who I talk to almost on a daily basis and who’s scouting report videos I have linked up to most of these prospects. I really appreciate the work he puts into each one and although we don’t always agree with each prospect, I thought it would be cool to add perspective to you the reader. Please be sure to check those out and subscribe to his Draft Dynasty channel on Youtube. 

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Top 31 Prospects

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#1.

Alexis Lafreniere is a franchise player who has everything you look for in a #1 pick including tremendous skill & playmaking ability, high hockey IQ, great work ethic and determination. Lafreniere is someone who doesn’t shy away from the physical part of the game either, which should add even more appeal to whichever team picks him 1st overall. He’s an extremely tenacious player who finishes his checks, and will light you up physically if you’re not paying attention.

Lafreniere can beat you in a variety of ways and his ability to process the game is elite. He wants the puck when the game is on the line, and has that certain level of relentlessness and determination only the greats truly possess. That’s what really separates him from a guy like Byfield. His puck skills are jaw dropping and his playmaking is just dazzling to watch. He’s very capable of providing both highlight reel goals, and highlight reel passes. Such a dynamic prospect with great leadership qualities and a burning desire to be the best.

Outlook: Lafreniere is much more NHL ready than Jack Hughes was last year, and is probably more along the lines of an Auston Matthews in terms of overall talent. He shouldn’t have any problem stepping in on Day 1 and contributing, given his ability to handle himself physically. I could definitely see him moved to center and be a true franchise #1C at some point in his career. Even if that doesn’t happen, he’s still too good in too many areas to not be anything short of one of the best players in the NHL eventually. 

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#2.

Drysdale is a future #1 Dman with huge upside. The complete package. One of the smartest players in the draft and one of the best skaters in the draft. Real student of the game capable shutting down even the fastest players in the league. Excels at out thinking opponents & beats them with superb positioning. Also has a very active stick & terrific gap control. Tremendous puck mover who is deadly in transition. Point per game player on a bad team, would be in conversation for 1^st overall if playing for a better OHL team. Still room to grow offensively but flashes all the traits that indicate he’ll get there. Great vision, poise, passing ability to go with a keen understanding of the position. Competes hard in all zones. Makes everyone around him better. A true leader.

Outlook: Unlike most young offensive defenders, Drysdale is probably further along defensively than they were at his age. Which means, he’s likely closer to NHL ready than you think. He does need to get stronger & put on some weight so I’d give him a year then expect him to be in the NHL. Has impressed more than Byfield in several tournaments & best on best games which is why he’s ranked ahead. Plus, they’re only 3 months apart in age. A legit #1 dman capable of playing in all situations and logging huge minutes in the same mold as guys like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes & Miro Heiskanen. Reminds me so much of Scott Niedermayer back in the day. 

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#3.

Stuetzle is such a dynamic player with a huge ceiling it’s hard to ignore. His ability to stickhandle at high speeds is drool worthy. He is such a good skater with great edgework he can embarrass defenders with his creativity & agility. Extremely active and terrific motor. All over the ice. Can be a little careless with the puck at times but is so determined will fight to get it back. Very good 200-foot player.

I do have a bit of concern that quite often Stuetzle will pass up open shots in favour of an extra pass at times, which is something he’ll definitely have to work on. He needs to be a bit more selfish but that’s easily coachable. His shot does need work though so it’s probably more of a confidence thing right now. Still ranks higher than Byfield for me due to his better compete level, dynamic skating ability & overall creativity. Can also play center.

Outlook: Someone on Twitter (I forget who) mentioned Stuetzle reminds him so much of Taylor Hall and I can definitely see why. Stuetzle is a premium driver with the puck who attacks you with speed and energy. Playing in a mens league and running the powerplay and excelling the way he has, tells me he’s ready to turn pro now. He’s an elite skater with elite puck control even at top speed. Easily a Top 5 pick and still has a lot of upside. Will still likely spend one more year overseas.

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#4.

Byfield has such a tantalizing mix of size, speed and skill it makes scouts drool. He has soft hands and terrific puck handling skills. He has a heavy shot. He also possesses breakaway speed. His hockey IQ is good but not great, he exhibits a good work ethic, and is a highly creative player. Byfield is also an excellent 200 ft centerman and is very good at faceoffs. He certainly looks the part of a future stud with upside. He’s a big kid who’s still a bit raw and has room to grow. Byfield is pretty young for this class too with an August birthdate which also excites people.

However, despite what supporters will tell you, Byfield does need to do a better job stepping up against tougher competition and needs to show more determination to fight thru checks. He’s big but not overly physical. He loses more puck battles than he should for a guy with his size and reach. Could he get there? Sure. But for now, he’s considered a gentle giant who consistently underwhelms on the scoresheet in big games. Looks pretty average whenever it’s best on best. People said similar about Joe Thornton at the time and he turned out pretty well (though never won a Stanley Cup). Not a huge concern but something to consider.

Outlook: Byfield’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s in this draft but he’s not there yet which means there is a slight risk here if he doesn’t reach it. Some automatically think he’ll reach his maximum potential but I’m more hesitant. The compete level is not up to par for a Top pick or future elite superstar, and he shies away from contact too much for my liking. Lafreniere is easily better in those categories. I don’t see Byfield as a dominant, future Top 5 NHL player but more of a Rick Nash/Eric Staal type perennial All-star who might fall just short of some people’s lofty expectations. Still a terrific talent nonetheless and future #1 center.

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#5.

Holtz is likely the best shooter and goal scorer in this draft. He has a terrific shot & release and a real nose for the net. He’s gotten much stronger physically and as a skater throughout the year which makes him very well rounded. He’s a high IQ player with underrated playmaking ability and shows good commitment to a 200 ft game. A real offensive catalyst who loves to score goals. Looks and plays like a pro. Shot selection will need some work but hard to criticize a guy who can shoot like him for shooting too much. A true sniper and likely a hot commodity come draft day.

Outlook: Holtz has handled himself very well in the Swedish league amongst men, which means he is likely more pro ready than Lucas Raymond at this point. He’s also bigger and stronger on his skates which should also bode well. He has future 30-40+ goal scorer in the NHL written all over him. Maybe not quite as high a ceiling as Raymond longterm but much safer. I’m banking on more of the sure thing. Definitely reminds me a bit of David Pastrnak. 

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#6.

Rossi might be the most pro ready player behind Lafreniere. Rossi is a coach’s dream in that he is so solid every aspect of the game. He’s the best 200-foot player of this group and he makes so many great decisions with the puck it’s easy to fall in love with his game. He has wonderful hands in tight and great puck skills. In terms of skating, he’s not necessarily a burner, but he’s very quick and elusive with terrific edgework. He does a great job of finding open ice and can bait defenders as he looks to set up his teammates. He reads the ice incredibly well it always looks like he is in complete command out there. He’s a bull on his skates too. He does a great job on the cycle and in puck protection. He’s the type of player that is just about as dangerous without the puck as he is with it. Makes everyone around him better.

Outlook: The only reason Rossi is ranked 6^th is because he just missed being drafted last year as a late 2001 birthdate. I’m not even sure if that really matters at this point as he has been THAT good. There aren’t many smaller centers like him in the pros, but much like Sebastian Aho I expect him to excel at the position. Complete player who sytlistically reminds me of a less turnover prone version of Claude Giroux. 

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#7.

Lucas Raymond is ranked #7 here but he could easily be #2. He has that type of ability and ceiling. To be clear, I don’t dislike anything about him as a prospect. I actually think he and Tim Stuetzle are close in terms of skillsets and ability. Like Stuetzle, he is very adept at attacking defenders with speed & skill and he is a terrific playmaker. He also has a good work ethic and plays a good 200 ft game. I love how he reads the play and makes players around him better. Raymond is also responsible defensively and can play both PP and PK.

I guess the main reason why I have him 7th is probably due to his lack of size and strength, along with lack of production in a men’s league. Now, I understand he’s only getting limited minutes. But, he’s only (listed) at 5’10”, 165 lbs. In terms of NHL translatable skills, Stuetzle can do everything Raymond can but he’s 6’0″, 187 lbs. I’ve seen enough shifts & clips of Raymond trying to duck or shy away from contact that has me a slight bit concerned. Yes it’s nitpicking, but it’s what I do to help differentiate between prospects. Raymond is extremely talented and deserves to be ranked higher.

Outlook: Lucas Raymond might be the most talented player I have ever ranked at #7 overall. Ever. Part of it is, I just think the other six are shoe-in top line NHL’ers. Another part is, he’s just a bit too risky for me to rank any higher. There’s no doubt he has the ability to be a top line NHL player and I am fully prepared to eat crow years later for ranking him this low. But, I just sense a bit of bust potential based on lack of size, strength, & production. I hope he proves me wrong. Could very well be another Elias Pettersson. 

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#8.

Amirov is smart, fast, skilled, and owns a high work ethic. In other words, he’s my kind of player. His hockey IQ is quite often mentioned as one of his best qualities, but he’s also a beast with the puck. He’s solid in all 3 zones and plays a very consistent, all-round game. In terms of puck protection, I think @hckyprospects on Twitter said it best: “You have to kill him to get the puck off of him”. I personally love his work ethic and tenacity. He always impressed me internationally with his decision making, and watching him play in the MHL & KHL, he always found ways to make an impact. Highly skilled player with very quick set of hands. Equally dangerous as a scorer or playmaker. 

Outlook: I ranked Amirov behind Lucas Raymond because he’s almost 6 months older, and doesn’t quite have the elite qualities that Raymond has.  But, his overall game might translate better. So smart, so reliable, so versatile. Amirov is a complete player in my mind who is tenacious on the puck, and competes hard every shift. I definitely think he is underrated by many due to the leagues he plays in. Very polished with no real weaknesses, Amirov looks like a bonafide future NHL’er. Almost reminds me of a lighter version of Andrei Svechnikov. 

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#9.

Jarvis is an absolute workhorse and very talented playmaker. He processes the game quickly even at high speeds. He’s such a terrific skater who doesn’t break stride even with the puck. Loves to take the puck hard to the net off the rush. He plays with a ton of energy and pace it’s really tough for defenders to handle. Great hands in tight. Displays great vision and poise with the puck. Dynamic offensive threat but also versatile capable of playing multiple roles. 

Outlook: Stylistically, Jarvis reminds me so much of Kailer Yamamoto as a prospect. In fact, they both had 42 goals, 98 and 99 points respectively in their draft years (7 more GP for Yamo). Jarvis is bigger & probably a bit faster which is why he is ranked this high. I was even tempted to rank him higher quite honesty but it’s such a deep group at the top I couldn’t. He needs to get stronger as most kid’s his age do, but he’s a gamer who brings it every single night. Should be a high impact player in the NHL. Definitely a lot of Matt Barzal in his game too hence the high ranking. 

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#10.

Mysak is an excellent all-round player who appears to be underrated by many. He immediately stepped into Hamilton of the OHL and played like a boss. He was easily the Bulldogs best player most nights and averaged over a point a game for the season (so much for an adjustment period to North American ice). Not only is Mysak highly skilled, but he works hard and is reliable in all 3 zones. He played both PP and PK in the OHL and was very effective at both. Can also play C or W.

Mysak appears to have great command of the ice. He is deadly off the rush and in transition. He knows when to attack defenders with speed and when to try and overpower them. He has a very good shot & release, and a big one-timer. He’s not overly dynamic but relies more on power, puck protection and quick hands. He shows great acceleration and the ability to change gears to throw off defenders. Quite often he likes to lower that shoulder and use his strong edges. He also has the puck skills to dangle and the soft mitts to finish in tight. He’s smart, he’s poised & reliable.

Outlook: For me, Mysak has more potential than most because he’s relatively young compared to his peers and still appears to be a bit raw physically. I see him as a center in the NHL based on how well he sets up his teammates and attacks the middle of the ice. I’ve heard a lot of Tomas Hertl comparisons and I can definitely see that. In many ways, he also reminds me a bit of Leon Draisaitl. If he adds a bit of mass and gains even another step he could be an unstoppable force given his already developed skillset. No idea where he ultimately gets drafted but this kid is a Top 10 talent in my mind. 

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#11.

Quinn is a late 2001 birthdate who has really blossomed into a legit goal scoring threat this season. He’s much quicker and stronger than last season and appeared to play with great confidence. His shot and release are elite. He has such soft hands around the net too. He scores off the rush, off-balanced, and can stickhandle thru traffic. Quite often you will see him blow by defenders with his speed. His edgework is also terrific which allows him to execute some nasty dekes. Probably an underrated playmaker too since he is a shoot first type player. Overall, Quinn just has great offensive instincts and is a constant threat on almost every shift.

As far as the rest of his game goes, Quinn is pretty much solid in every area with no glaring weaknesses. He shows good effort in all 3 zones and battles hard for the puck. He shows a good hockey IQ and has a lot of experience on the PK which adds to his versatility.

I also want to point out that Jack Quinn scored an insane 34 even strength goals. It’s important to note too that he did not play with Marco Rossi 5 on 5 either. That’s what makes his numbers so impressive. He drove the play on the 2nd line which made Ottawa such an offensive threat.

Outlook: Stylistically, Quinn reminds me an awful lot of Kyle Connor. He likes to score, he knows how to score, and he scores a lot. He should be a bonafide NHL’er one day soon. Just a slight bit leery that he’s one of the oldest prospects in this draft and played on such a strong OHL team. Otherwise, he’d be even higher. There’s no denying the offensive skill-set which should translate well to the NHL.

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#12.

Dawson Mercer is another one of my favourite prospects. He has a non-stop motor, great hockey IQ, is an excellent skater, and a very solid 2-way playmaker. He’s not quite as dynamic as Jarvis but very similar in that he brings a ton of speed & skill to the table. Another late 2001 birthdate, he and Jack Quinn are neck and neck for me but I gave the slight edge to Quinn just because of his goal scoring production. But make no mistake, Mercer is an extremely talented kid with a lot of elite qualities himself. He can stickhandle in a phone booth and no one works harder than him on the ice. He also has great vision and will sacrifice his body to make a play. One of the most well-rounded players in the Top 15.

Outlook: Jonathan Huberdeau was known as a terrific stickhandler and passer who scored a pile of goals in is draft year, and Dawson Mercer reminds me so much of him. In fact, Mercer was pretty much on pace with Huberdeau for awhile until he got hurt and then ultimately traded. Whether Mercer is able to reach that potential at the NHL level remains to be seen. But, he should have a bright future thanks to his natural skill-set, skating ability & work ethic. Mercer is pretty much a coach’s dream as a player.

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#13.

Sanderson is regarded by many as the best defensive prospect in this year’s draft. He’s quick, he’s aggressive and he enjoys being tough to play against. Looks like a true shutdown defenceman that skates well and can move the puck. He’s quicker than Kaiden Guhle and passes the puck better but a lot of similarities there. Sanderson is also a very smart kid who makes a lot of good decisions and really understands his position. Straight line speed is very good and he is adept at carrying the puck out of his zone on breakouts if need be. Offensively, his shot isn’t great and he isn’t nearly as dangerous in transition as Drysdale, though he takes a lot less chances jumping up into the rush than Drysdale did.

Sanderson does look a little stiff and slow skating backwards which is one of the biggest differences between he and Drysdale. You would think he would get beat wide a lot with speed. But, he’s so sound positionally and has a long reach and active stick it helps him compensate and recover. His gap control is excellent which makes him so difficult to beat one on one especially in middle of the ice. He does tend to reach a lot but I also like how he gets down to take away passing lanes and will sacrifice his body to break up a play.

Outlook: Sanderson appears to be the 2nd best defenceman in this class and the type of prospect some teams will fall in love with. He’s big, he’s physical, he competes hard and he can skate. He’s not quite on Drysdale’s level in terms of offensive upside but they have some very similar qualities. I have him ranked #13 in terms of overall eventual impact, but it’s almost a guarantee he gets drafted in the Top 10 at the NHL draft. Type of defensive player that teams highly covet. Son of former NHL’er Geoff Sanderson. 

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#14.

I’m not going to pretend I’m some sort of goalie expert because I am not. I do know Askarov has been highly touted for awhile now, every since he completely shut down a stacked USA team in the U18’s last spring. In fact, he has been outstanding on the International stage minus the most recent World Junior Championship where he struggled a bit.

Askarov is a hybrid goalie with good size, impressive athleticism and is technically sound. He has a real quick glove and shows great anticipation. But, that’s about it in terms of my analysis. I’m sure you can google “Askarov scouting report” if you want more a detailed breakdown.

Outlook: There were only about 6 or 7 netminders in the NHL drafted in the 1st round, that were ranked in the Top 40 in games played this past season. That means, there have many more busts than hits over the years. Especially ones who shined in International tournaments. So for me, there is always risk involved in drafting a goalie in the 1st round. But, Askarov appears to be the real deal and if he lives up to his potential, he should be staple in net for a franchise for many years. 

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#15.

I like Kaiden Guhle a lot. I never really saw him play until the Hlinka-Gretzky in August but I was very impressed. He has a nice mix of size, skating, hockey sense and physicality. He can also rip the puck and is good in transition. What I really like though, is how good he is defensively. He battles hard in his zone and is a pain in the ass to play against. He finishes his checks and makes opponents pay. He does a great job of gap control and has the speed & reach to recover if he does get beat. He’ll occasionally get beat by being too overaggressive, but overall he makes good decisions.

Outlook: Guhle’s game is a combination of Jake Sanderson and Ryan O’Rourke. Competitive, feisty, versatile and a leader with some sneaky good offence to go along with some nastiness on defence. Guhle will be an eventual Top 4 defencemen in the NHL and should be highly coveted on draft day. Could still be a bit of untapped offensive potential too so good upside here.

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#16.

Holloway is one of the most puzzling prospects for me in the 1st round. For one, he’s one of the oldest kid in this draft. He’s big and physically mature. He is a very fluid skater with a powerful stride and excellent speed. He is also a tremendous stickhandler and has some real nice puck skills. Both his shot & release are very good. Holloway works hard at both ends of the ice and doesn’t mind throwing his body around. But, I struggle a bit with envisioning him being an elite contributor offensively as a pro. I don’t think he has elite offensive instincts but does have the tools to score a lot of “garbage goals” in front. Which, could still be very valuable for an NHL team.

Outlook: As mentioned, Holloway looks the part and was highly productive in the AJHL but hasn’t produced as much as you would like in the NCAA yet. He has the size, strength, speed, skill mix to be very productive in the NHL. I’m just not sure how high his offensive ceiling is. He has big time power forward potential, but also quite often looks like a middle six energy guy. In terms of a comparison stylistically, I see a lot of Evander Kane. He’ll play in the NHL, I’m just not sure how high up the lineup. 

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#17.

Perfetti has been highly productive since entering the OHL, finishing 2nd in scoring this season behind Marco Rossi. He is an excellent playmaker and natural scorer with very quick hands and an array of slick moves. He is also extremely dangerous on breakaways and shootouts. His vision and passing ability seemed to improve this year too. He’s very creative and does a great job of using his teammates to create offense. Perfetti is also a huge threat on the PP but is more of a “dust off the puck” then shoot type rather than using the booming one-timer of a Perreault or Foerster for example.

Once we get to #17th overall, the Red Flags I mentioned earlier become much more apparent and clearly identifiable in these prospects. 

Perfetti’s lack of speed & explosiveness, inconsistent work ethic & 200 ft game are causes for concern. He probably improves in those areas eventually but there are no guarantees. In terms of translating his game to the NHL, he’s not a real threat off the rush, can be out-muscled along the boards quite easily, and really needs to be more consistent in his overall game to be successful at the next level. He’s more of a what I call a “stationary sniper” and PP threat right now. Works in Junior, but won’t translate to the NHL as defenders are quicker, smarter and defend better. 

Outlook: I know, I know. 111 points & +49 only ranked 17th? Perfetti is the type of player I typically drop in my rankings every year because his skating & work ethic aren’t great. He’ll definitely be a winger in the NHL but has the hockey IQ & creativity to be an impactful player. But, his career will likely be determined by his compete level & skating ability. If he improves those significantly over the next couple years he could be an All-star. If he doesn’t, he’ll be a fringe NHL’er at best. Just can’t rank him any higher. 

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#18.

I’m going to go against popular twitter opinion and say Noel Gunler is a bit overrated. I see the big shot and release and understand the appeal. He’s pretty solid all-round and really likes to go hard to the net. But, Gunler’s speed, skating, puck control, and playmaking ability are well behind guys like Raymond, Mysak, Jarvis & Mercer to me. I also like Holtz and Quinn’s scoring ability & 200 foot games better, and I think Holloway has the tools to be more dominant. Gunler is ranked right there with Perfetti for me because I have questions about his game translating to the next level quite frankly. He’s good in a lot of areas, but other than his shot I don’t see anything elite about him. He also doesn’t PK so if he isn’t a Top 6 forward what is he?

As far as perceived lack of work ethic, I’ve talked to many people who have tracked him for awhile now and they assure me that is no longer as issue. Watching the terrific breakdown by @DraftDynasty1 on Twitter (posted below), he does a good job of dismissing that concern. I still wouldn’t call him a “workhorse” or say he has a strong 200 foot game but the effort level seems to at least be good enough.

Outlook: Gunler has the feel of a solid 2nd line winger in the NHL as long a he continues to improve in a few areas. There has been talk of issues off the ice in the past which is why he has been left off Sweden’s national team several times. I can’t speak to whether it was maturity issues, or just inconsistencies in his game but if coaches don’t trust them for whatever reason, it’s something I’d want to know more about before drafting him. Regardless, Gunler is still a risky pick for me in the Top 15 but if all goes right, he should still be a fine NHL player some day. 

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#19.

Foerster is a big-time shooter, capable of scoring many “Big boy” goals. His wrist shot has a nasty release and his one-timer from the top of the left circle is elite. He’s a huge threat on the PP where he led the entire OHL in PPG’s with 18. He’s also equally dangerous off the rush where he can rip it from far out. Some don’t realize but Cole Perfetti had 37 goals, while Foerster had 36. Foerster is an underrated playmaker too. He reads the ice very well and has great offensive instincts overall. He has good vision and is very adept at anticipating the play and getting into a prime shooting position or going hard to the net.

Foerster’s skating will need some work as he doesn’t have very quick feet, but his straight-line speed is above average. He just needs to continue to work on his short burst and acceleration while also keeping his feet moving. Sometimes he can be caught gliding out there. If he improves in that area then watch out.

Outlook: In terms of a ceiling, it might surprise you but I think Foerster has a massive ceiling. The progression he made from last year to this season was huge. He appears to have the work ethic and determination to improve which means if his skating continues to get better, he could develop into a legit power forward in the NHL. He’s smart, he works hard and he has the ability to score a lot of goals in the NHL with that cannon of a shot. He reminds me a lot of a young Jamie Benn to be quite honest. Whether or not he gets to that level is a different story but he’s a legit power forward prospect. 

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#20.

Tristen Robins is probably my favourite player out of the WHL because he is so underrated. He has all the traits I look for – Smart, speedy, skilled. Great work ethic. He’s pretty gritty for his size too. Yet for some reason, he isn’t often mentioned among the elite forwards in this draft. In terms of offensive production, he had 24 points in the final 13 games of the season which was a ridiculous 120 point pace.

In terms of NHL translatable skills, Robin’s wrist shot and release are elite. His one-timer is dynamite. His speed is also excellent and he is always moving his feet. His vision and playmaking ability are also top notch. On top of all that, I love his motor and competitiveness. There is so much to like about Robin’s game it baffles me how he doesn’t get more love. Heck, I even had to create my own highlight reel on Youtube and I was shocked how many people didn’t realize how skilled he was.

Outlook: There’s no doubt in my mind, if Robins were a couple inches taller and few pounds heavier, he’d be a Top 15 pick – he has that type of ability. But, many prefer a guy like Ozzie Wiesblatt over Robins even though there is only a 4 months age difference. For me, Robins has the more dynamic offensive skill-set that will translate to a top 6 role in the NHL eventually. I do see him as a winger though in the NHL which is fine given his speed to beat defenders wide. He looks like a sure-fire 2nd round steal to me. 

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#21.

Martin Chromiak is one of the youngest players in the draft and one of the most intriguing for me. I saw him in limited viewings internationally, and definitely thought he was a guy to keep an eye on. Once he came over to the OHL mid last season, I wasn’t disappointed.

Like Mysak, Chromiak immediately stepped into the OHL and adapted quickly. He had instant chemistry with 15 yr old phenom Shane Wright and his superb offensive skill-set quickly became evident. Chromiak can really shoot the puck and he also has excellent playmaking ability. The puck jumps off his stick with his quick hands, and he gets a lot of torque on his wrister. He also has big one-timer when he times it right.

Chromiak has a high hockey IQ and elite offensive instincts. He reads the play extremely well and always seem to be able to get into the right position to create a scoring chance. I also love the energy he plays with and his work ethic is terrific. His defensive game still needs some fine tuning but his feet are usually always moving so that’s a good sign moving forward.

Outlook: Chromiak is one of the youngest players in this draft, and will be playing with Shane Wright for the next couple of years in Kingston. Which means there is plenty of room for growth and an opportunity for some of that elite talent to rub off on him. The fact he was able to step in and have an immediate impact in the OHL is a huge positive too. I still consider him a bit raw and there is big upside here.

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#22.

There are a few real talented Swedish defencemen in this year’s draft so it took me awhile to figure out who I like the best. But, I’m now confident that Emil Andrae is that guy.

Andrae has all the things I love in a prospect (which you should be able to identify by now – lol). He’s very smart, skilled, quick and has a good work ethic. He’s not as big as a guy like William Wallinder or Helge Grans, but he reads the ice better, makes better decisions, and offers the most offensive potential due to his ability to effectively quarterback a powerplay. He’s also a terrific puck mover and holds his own defensively. He’s smaller but I like his compete level. All that translates to a bonafide NHL defenceman for me. Size and strength are an issue but those are for most.

Outlook: So many draft enthusiasts love size and “potential ceiling” which is why Andrae is likely ranked behind Walliner and Grans. But for me, it’s a no-brainer. Gimme the sure thing regardless of size. Andrae is a lot like Lukas Cormier but a better overall skater which puts him higher on the list for me. I’ve heard a few Erik Brannstrom comparisons and I can definitely see it, though Brannstrom was almost 6 months older than Andrae same age in their draft year. 

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#23.

Vasily Ponomarev is a strong skater and talented playmaker with a big shot & quick release. He’s also a bull on his skates. His puck protection especially down low below the circles, makes him a difficult player to handle for defenders given his low center of gravity. He has a good work ethic and is responsible defensively. In terms of skating, he’s not a burner but has very quick feet with that short burst that makes him dangerous below the circles. He also displays great vision and has the ability to find teammates in tight windows.

Production wise, Ponomarev didn’t light it up in the QMJHL as an import but he still had his share of highlights. He really stood out in International tournaments for Russia where his true skill-set really was apparent. He has a nice mix of grit and finesse, and is not afraid of going hard to the net to score.

Outlook: Some might have Ponomarev lower based on his lack of eye-popping offensive output in the QMJHL, but I love the skillset and style of game he plays and think it will translate well to the NHL. He was a bit inconsistent playing for Shawinigan, but again he was an import adapting to the league so I cut him a bit of slack. Stylistcally, I see a lot of Viktor Arvidsson in his game and think he will end up being a very solid pro. 

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#24.

Peterka is a very talented German blessed with terrific hands and scoring ability. His speed is also very good which makes him a real threat off the rush. He has the ability to dangle and has no problems going hard to the net. Peterka’s work ethic is another strength. He’s a battler and doesn’t mind the physical part of the game. He we was absolutely terrific at the World Juniors which really helped showcase his offensive talent and boost his stock.

Like many young prospects, Peterka needs to work on his defensive game. Consistency also appears to be a bit of an issue much like Mavrik Bourque who I have ranked right below. I like Peterka better because he competes hard and will throw his weight around.

Outlook: Drafted by the Barrie Colts in the Import draft last year, I was really hoping Peterka would consider joining the likes of Tyson Foerster & Brandt Clarke in the OHL next season, but that doesn’t sound like it will happen. Peterka has a very intriguing skill-set & his work ethic is very good so there is plenty of upside here. However, the momentum he built off one tourney and the success he is having in a lesser league does create some hesitation in his ranking. I can see his game translating well if he cleans up his game defensively & adds a step so while I’m a bit torn, I think he has enough talent to (at least) be an impactful Top 9 player in the NHL one day.

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#25.

Mavrik Bourque is a highly skilled player who loves to shoot the puck. His shot is very accurate and he possesses a dynamic release. He loves to snipe it top shelf and has some slick hands in tight. His playmaking skills have definitely improved too as his passing ability is much better now. He has great vision and puts great touch on his passes. Skating wise, he’s not a burner but has good top speed, agility and edge work so it’s certainly an asset. Bourque has great offensive instincts and is a real threat on the ice with the puck on his stick. The problem I have with his game is when the puck is not on his stick.

Consistency is definitely an issue with Bourque especially in his own zone. His 200 foot game is spotty at best and I’m not a fan of his board play at all. Bourque plays a very soft game and gets knocked down a lot. I worry about injuries and him being able to sustain the rigors of the NHL. He tends to shy away from contact & won’t work hard enough to help break up a play.

Outlook: Bourque has a high offensive ceiling but there is also bust potential here. Has a lot of skill but I’m not convinced about the will. One of the riskier picks in the 1st round for me but could pay off if he improves in a few areas. Definitely a winger for me at the next level. 

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#26.

Jacob Perreault – I have to admit, I want to love this player – but I don’t love this player. His stats are impressive (especially goal scoring), he has the NHL bloodlines and he was registered as the fastest skater at the CHL scouting combine. He can score off the rush with his big shot & release, and has nice hands in tight. His one-timer from the left circle is also deadly. However, for some reason I am quite often not impressed enough or am left yearning for more when watching Perreault.

For me, shot selection is a bit of an issue and Perreault isn’t the greatest playmaker. He also turns over the puck a bit too much for my liking. Was a -34 on the season (team low) but on a pretty bad defensive team in Sarnia. Like Perfetti, Perreault seems to easily fall down on the ice a lot too. His work ethic can be spotty at times. Shows flashes but inconsistent effort. He also doesn’t always use his speed and ability to adjust gears effectively. No real glaring red flags just a lot of little things that give you that underwhelming feeling after several viewings throughout the year.

Outlook: Despite all that, Perreault SHOULD turn out to be a solid NHL’er based on all the positives I highlighted, so I’m going with my head over my gut a bit on this one. I don’t think he has top line potential and do worry if he’s not a Top 6 type, does he have the skillset to be a good bottom 6 guy in the NHL? Regardless, his ceiling is probably a 2^nd-3^rd liner which still makes him a solid pick at the back end of the 1^st round. I’m torn on this prospect. Your mileage may vary.

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#27.

Zary is a solid all-round prospect with no real holes in his game, but nothing really elite stands out either. He’s plays a pro style game and is pretty consistent in all 3 zones. His hands are pretty sweet and he can dangle. But, the speed and playmaking ability are nothing real special. He doesn’t really create a lot in terms of separation speed like Jarvis for example. His shot is good but not great either. His overall skill-set screams good but not great. It does seem like his offensive production is a bit in part due to the team around him.

Connor Zary was considered the consensus best WHL player by many for most of the year, but for me, it was apparent back in November that Jarvis offered more in terms of dynamic playmaking ability. Not to say Zary isn’t a promising prospect, but he doesn’t have quite as high a ceiling to me. Plus, he’s one of the oldest prospects in this draft and it feels like he’s kind of already peaked physically. He also played a ton of minutes in all situations and had two WHL vets he played with most of the year.

Outlook: To be clear, I like Connor Zary as a prospect. I just don’t see the offensive upside. He’s very similar to Jake Neighbours in my mind. Versatile, well-rounded but likely more of a middle six forward than a Top line guy. Middle of the lineup role player who could still be a vital piece of a Championship team in the NHL one day. Probably an Adam Henrique type ceiling. 

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#28.

Lukas Cormier is a smart savvy player with terrific offensive instincts. He’s very active in the O-zone and a real gamer on defence. He’s excellent at jumping up and joining the attack, and is a natural quarterbacking a powerplay. As a 16 yr old, he set a league record with 15 goals so you know he has great scoring ability. He has low hard shot, quick release and puts great touch on his passes. He clearly thinks the game at a high level and has terrific vision to set up his teammates.

Cormier is a good, not great skater though what he lacks in overall speed, he makes up for with quick puck movement, smart decision making and strong edgework. He’ll need to continue to work on his defensive game but that goes for most young NHL defencemen. The main thing he is smart & competitive so it should come eventually. He excels at zone exits and is very poised with the puck. Doesn’t turn over the puck much. Plenty of talent to justify a 1st round pick with a relatively high offensive ceiling.

Outlook: Stylistically, Cormier reminds me a lot of former NHL’er Brian Campbell who played over 1000 games in the league. He was a smart, savvy, positive possession player who racked up a ton of assists. If Cormier continues to get better as a skater, I could definitely see him play a similar role for his NHL team –  with the added bonus of a racking up a pile of powerplay points. 

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#29.

Wiesblatt is a fun prospect to watch because he brings it every night. He plays a rugged, fast pace game and is an absolute puck hound. He certainly likes to throw his weight around and is a forechecking demon. Offensively, he goes hard to the net and cleans up a lot of garbage goals. He’s also got a pretty good one-timer on the powerplay and good shot overall with a terrific release.

His puck skills, and in particular his puck control though do need work. Seems like his hands can’t keep up to his feet sometimes and he wastes a lot of energy without producing a high danger scoring chance. His vision is sometimes questionable too from what I’ve seen. Doesn’t always seem to process the play quickly enough as he skates himself into trouble. Is a zone entry machine though.

Outlook: Wiesblatt is a lot like Robins in that he is a terrific skater, high energy guy who can push the pace and put a lot of pressure on opponents. They’re only 4 months apart too but the key difference for me is Robins has a bit more elite skill & a better shot. Plus, Robins seems to play more under control and allow plays to develop, whereas Wiesblatt tends to force it too much. Not to mention, Robins really drove the offense for Saskatoon whereas Wiesblatt benefited a lot playing with Aleksei Protas. Regardless, Wiesblatt still has a terrific all-round game, one that should translate well to the NHL. More of a middle of the lineup energy guy with grit but could play on my team any day. Should quickly become a fan favourite. 

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#30.

Brendan Brisson is a guy I knew little about until recently but I had a chance to watch a few games of his and I was very impressed. He’s a talented kid who checks a lot of boxes for me. He’s very a quick skater, and appears to have a very high hockey IQ. His shot & release are both deadly, and his playmaking skills are very impressive. He has great offensive instincts and is very poised with the puck. First and foremost though, I consider him a shooting winger who loves to one-time snipe it from the right circle. Very dangerous on the powerplay.

I also really like Brisson’s compete level at both ends of the ice and how he’s not afraid to get dirty. He makes a lot of smart, subtle plays that tells me he really understands the game. I’ve seen mixed reports on his skating from great to above average. For me, it’s good but could definitely use more refining.

Outlook: Admittedly, I haven’t watched this kid a ton but I wish now I would have. From what I’ve seen, he may not be elite in a lot of categories but he’s pretty darn good so I’m going on a hunch here based on a small sample. He didn’t do a whole lot last year and is a late 2001 birthdate so there is a bit of risk here. But, based on his NHL translatable skills I think he has a real chance to surprise in the future. Not as big or strong as his teammate Sam Colangelo, but better overall skill in my mind. Has a chance to be a real good 2nd liner one day. 

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#31.

Some will see this and literally laugh out loud. But, if I were to ask you who is the worst all-round skater of all 1^st round prospects, it would be hard not to say Lundell. That’s not to say there isn’t a lot to like about his game. He’s a very smart, heady player who is reliable in both zones. He has great anticipation and poise with the puck and adept positioning. He works hard and has excellent 2 way ability. He also has quick release and some nice hands in tight.

But, in today’s NHL you have to be able to at least keep up speed wise and I have my doubts Lundell is capable of that. His skating is a huge red flag and is the #1 reason why he might not make it as a pro. Even if he does, I see him as a defensively responsible, 2 way center at best. Lundell is also a late 2001, just missing last year’s draft by less than 3 weeks. I don’t see much room for growth and his offensive ceiling is limited. As smart as he is, I have a hard time seeing how he generates offense with NHL defenders limiting his time and space.

Outlook: Let’s keep it real. Not every single prospect drafted in the 1st round will make it to the NHL, and I worry that Lundell might really struggle to stick due to the aforementioned. That’s why he’s the last pick in my Top 31. Could he improve his skating? Sure. Some have, but too many have not and busted out. Gotta trust my gut on this one. He will still get a chance and will likely have a role in the NHL at least for a bit, but a 3rd line 2-way center is probably his ceiling.  

For the record, I really wanted to put Veeti Miettinen here in this spot. He’s tiny, but his speed & skill are off the charts and he is super competitive too. 

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Thanks again to @DraftDynasty1 for allowing me to attach all these videos to each prospect. If you wish to comment on any of them please feel free to reach me @TheOilKnight. 

By The OilKnight 03/09/2020

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Welcome to our weekly update on CHL prospects. Here are the leading scorers among all 3 leagues for the 2020 draft eligibles & 16 yr old CHL rookies. ***Re-entries are not included***

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OHL

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Birthdate	Pos	Name	GP	G	A	P	League	Team
2001-09-25	C	Marco Rossi	55	38	78	116	OHL	Ottawa
2002-01-01	LW	Cole Perfetti	61	37	73	110	OHL	Saginaw
2001-09-19	RW	Jack Quinn	61	51	36	87	OHL	Ottawa
2002-08-19	C	Quinton Byfield	45	32	50	82	OHL	Sudbury
2002-01-18	RW	Tyson Foerster	61	36	44	80	OHL	Barrie
2002-04-15	RW	Jacob Perreault	57	39	31	70	OHL	Sarnia
2002-04-05	C	Ty Tullio	62	27	39	66	OHL	Oshawa
2002-01-18	LW	James Hardie	59	34	29	63	OHL	Mississauga
2002-02-21	RW	Luke Evangelista	62	23	38	61	OHL	London
2002-07-07	C	Zayde Wisdom	62	29	30	59	OHL	Kingston
2002-04-12	C	Rory Kerins	63	30	28	58	OHL	SSM
2001-12-01	RW	Brandon Coe	60	25	32	57	OHL	North Bay
2001-09-25	C	Jaromir Pytlik	55	21	28	49	OHL	SSM
2002-04-08	D	Jamie Drysdale	49	9	38	47	OHL	Erie
2002-07-09	C	Logan Morrison	59	23	22	45	OHL	Hamilton
2002-08-30	RW	Ethan Cardwell	62	22	23	45	OHL	Barrie
2002-05-13	C	Jean-Luc Foudy	59	15	28	43	OHL	Windsor
2001-09-24	RW	Hayden Fowler	52	20	22	42	OHL	Erie
2002-05-02	LW	Will Cuylle	62	22	20	42	OHL	Windsor
2002-06-20	C	Evan Vierling	42	14	28	42	OHL	Barrie
2002-02-05	RW	Declan McDonnell	62	20	21	41	OHL	Kitchener
2001-12-06	LW	Anthony Tabak	66	11	30	41	OHL	Barrie
2002-02-05	LW	Antonio Stranges	61	19	21	40	OHL	London
2002-03-05	LW	Tanner Dickinson	64	9	31	40	OHL	SSM
2002-03-14	RW	Reid Valade	51	18	18	36	OHL	Kitchener
2002-05-16	LD	Ryan O’Rourke	53	7	29	36	OHL	SSM
2002-01-11	LW	Vitali Pinchuk	54	13	21	34	OHL	Kingston
2002-08-20	LW	Martin Chromiak	28	11	22	33	OHL	Kingston
2001-12-21	LW	Aiden Prueter	66	12	21	33	OHL	Mississauga
2002-03-07	C	Jake Uberti	57	17	16	33	OHL	Niagara
2002-02-13	RW	Oliver Suni	43	12	20	32	OHL	Oshawa
2002-03-19	RD	Jack Thompson	63	13	19	32	OHL	Sudbury
2002-06-09	RW	Cameron Butler	65	18	14	32	OHL	Niagara
2002-05-29	LW	Alec Belanger	61	10	22	32	OHL	Ottawa
2002-01-08	RD	Ruben Rafkin	59	4	27	31	OHL	Windsor
2002-01-12	LD	Donovan Sebrango	55	6	23	29	OHL	Kitchener
2002-02-27	LD	Lleyton Moore	57	6	22	28	OHL	Oshawa
2002-06-24	C	Jan Mysak	22	15	10	25	OHL	Hamilton
2002-05-28	RW	Andrei Bakanov	54	11	12	23	OHL	Guelph
2002-08-12	RD	Ville Ottavainen	52	4	11	15	OHL	Kitchener
2002-03-30	LD	Kirill Steklov	50	2	7	9	OHL	London

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2021 Draft eligibles

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Birthdate	Pos	Name	GP	G	A	P	League	Team
2003-01-30	C	Mason McTavish	57	29	13	42	OHL	Peterborough
2003-04-11	C/LW	Francesco Pinelli	58	18	23	41	OHL	Kitchener
2003-06-07	C	Brett Harrison	58	21	16	37	OHL	Oshawa
2003-02-09	RD	Brandt Clarke	56	6	31	37	OHL	Barrie
2003-03-29	RW	Chase Stillman	58	13	21	34	OHL	Sudbury
2003-01-05	LW	Brennan Othmann	54	17	16	33	OHL	Flint
2002-10-22	LD	Daniil Chayka	55	11	22	33	OHL	Guelph
2002-05-14	C	Wyatt Johnson	53	12	18	30	OHL	Windsor
2002-10-10	RW	Avery Hayes	42	15	14	29	OHL	Hamilton
2003-01-21	C	Connor Lockhart	57	9	18	27	OHL	Erie
2003-06-13	C	Francesco Arcuri	60	7	13	20	OHL	Kingston
2003-06-19	RW	Ethan Burroughs	52	8	11	19	OHL	Owen Sound
2003-01-05	C	Braeden Kressler	45	9	9	18	OHL	Flint

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QMJHL

Birthdate	Pos	Name	GP	G	A	P	League	Team
2001-10-11	LW	Alexis Lafreniere	52	35	77	112	QMJHL	Rimouski
2001-12-02	RW	Ryan Francis	60	24	48	72	QMJHL	Cape Breton
2002-01-08	C	Mavrik Bourque	49	29	42	71	QMJHL	Shawinigan
2001-10-27	RW	Dawson Mercer	42	24	36	60	QMJHL	Chicoutimi
2002-03-20	RD	William Villeneuve	64	9	49	58	QMJHL	Saint John
2002-05-27	LW	Brady Burns	64	27	30	57	QMJHL	Saint John
2002-06-02	LD	Jeremie Poirier	64	20	33	53	QMJHL	Saint John
2001-11-01	LD	Jacob Dion	63	17	34	51	QMJHL	Drummondville
2002-03-13	C	Vasily Ponomaryev	57	18	31	49	QMJHL	Shawinigan
2002-01-28	RW	Josh Lawrence	64	19	23	42	QMJHL	Saint John
2002-04-29	C	Patrick Guay	55	21	19	40	QMJHL	Sherbrooke
2002-02-20	C	Theo Rochette	49	14	25	39	QMJHL	Quebec
2001-12-04	RD	Thimo Nickl	58	10	29	39	QMJHL	Drummondville
2002-01-12	C	Alexandre Doucet	62	8	29	37	QMJHL	Val D’Or
2002-03-27	LD	Lukas Cormier	44	6	30	36	QMJHL	Charlottetown
2002-01-29	LW	Raivis Ansons	59	13	22	35	QMJHL	Baie-Comeau
2002-04-01	RW	Valentin Demchenko	57	16	18	34	QMJHL	Baie-Comeau
2002-01-21	LW	Elliot Desnoyers	60	11	23	34	QMJHL	Moncton
2002-06-14	C	Senna Peeters	57	23	10	33	QMJHL	Halifax
2002-02-24	RD	Charlie Desroches	64	5	28	33	QMJHL	Saint John
2002-01-25	LW	Dawson Stairs	63	17	11	28	QMJHL	Saint John
2002-08-20	C	Ivan Ivan	61	11	11	22	QMJHL	Cape Breton
2001-09-25	RW	Adam Raska	35	13	8	21	QMJHL	Rimouski
2001-11-15	RD	Justin Barron	34	4	15	19	QMJHL	Halifax
2002-02-09	C	Hendrix Lapierre	19	2	15	17	QMJHL	Chicoutimi

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2021 Draft eligibles

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Birthdate	Pos	Name	GP	G	A	P	League	Team
2002-10-22	C	Xavier Bourgault	63	33	38	71	QMJHL	Shawinigan
2002-11-26	LD	Isaac Belliveau	62	11	42	53	QMJHL	Rimouski
2003-05-15	LW	Zachary L’Heureux	54	20	32	52	QMJHL	Moncton
2003-02-24	C	Zachary Bolduc	55	30	22	52	QMJHL	Rimouski
2003-01-04	C	Zachary Dean	57	18	28	46	QMJHL	Gatineau
2003-05-01	C	James Malatesta	59	23	22	45	QMJHL	Quebec
2003-08-06	C	Joshua Roy	60	16	28	44	QMJHL	Saint John
2003-03-13	C	Justin Robidas	57	21	22	43	QMJHL	Val D’Or
2003-05-14	C	Cole Huckins	64	13	25	38	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst
2003-03-25	C	Riley Kidney	59	5	28	33	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst
2002-09-27	C	Alexander Mirzabalaev	62	7	21	28	QMJHL	Val D’Or

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WHL

Birthdate	Pos	Name	GP	G	A	P	League	Team
2002-02-01	C	Seth Jarvis	58	42	56	98	WHL	Portland
2001-09-25	C	Connor Zary	57	38	48	86	WHL	Kamloops
2001-11-15	C	Tristen Robins	62	33	40	73	WHL	Saskatoon
2002-03-29	LW	Jake Neighbours	64	23	47	70	WHL	Edmonton
2002-03-09	RW	Ozzy Wiesblatt	64	25	45	70	WHL	Prince Albert
2002-02-10	LW	Kyle Crnkovic	63	21	43	64	WHL	Saskatoon
2002-08-08	C	Ridly Greig	56	26	34	60	WHL	Brandon
2002-09-02	C	Jack Finley	61	19	38	57	WHL	Spokane
2002-03-24	C	Justin Sourdif	57	26	28	54	WHL	Vancouver
2002-04-16	RW	Pavel Novak	55	25	33	58	WHL	Kelowna
2002-03-27	LW	Owen Pederson	61	28	22	50	WHL	Winnipeg
2002-01-25	LW	Cross Hanas	60	22	27	49	WHL	Portland
2002-06-25	RW	Connor McClennon	42	21	28	49	WHL	Winnipeg
2002-05015	RW	Ben King	62	20	26	46	WHL	Red Deer
2002-02-14	C	Josh Pillar	63	14	30	44	WHL	Kamloops
2001-09-20	RD	Braden Schneider	60	7	35	42	WHL	Brandon
2002-01-18	LD	Kaiden Guhle	64	11	29	40	WHL	Prince Albert
2002-01-19	RW	Payton Mount	62	15	24	39	WHL	Seattle
2001-11-28	RW	Lukas Svejkovsky	52	18	20	38	WHL	Medicine Hat
2002-08-16	C	Michal Gut	51	13	23	36	WHL	Everett
2002-01-27	RW	Simon Knak	49	9	25	34	WHL	Porland
2002-08-02	LD	Ronan Seeley	63	3	29	32	WHL	Everett
2001-12-13	LD	Ryker Evans	63	7	24	31	WHL	Regina
2002-04-27	LW	Keanu DeRungs	57	15	14	29	WHL	Victoria
2002-06-03	RD	Kasper Puutio	56	5	23	28	WHL	Everett
2002-02-24	LD	Benjamin Zloty	54	4	23	27	WHL	Winnipeg
2002-05-06	RD	Luke Prokop	59	4	9	23	WHL	Calgary
2002-08-15	RD	Landon Kosior	64	5	14	19	WHL	Prince Albert
2002-02-20	LD	Christoffer Sedoff	61	5	14	19	WHL	Red Deer
2002-05-15	LD	Daemon Hunt	28	0	15	15	WHL	Moose Jaw

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2021 Draft eligibles

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Birthdate	Pos	Name	GP	G	A	P	League	Team
2002-09-23	C	Ryder Korczak	62	18	49	67	WHL	Moose Jaw
2003-04-10	RW	Dylan Guenther	58	26	33	59	WHL	Edmonton
2003-05-16	C	Cole Sillinger	48	22	31	53	WHL	Medicine Hat
2003-02-06	C	Logan Stankoven	59	29	19	48	WHL	Kamloops
2003-05-13	LW	Connor Roulette	54	19	20	39	WHL	Seattle
2003-04-10	LW	Zack Stringer	48	11	23	34	WHL	Lethbridge
2003-01-14	LD	Carson Lambos	57	8	24	32	WHL	Winnipeg
2003-05-14	C	Jack O’Brien	55	14	16	30	WHL	Portland
2003-01-04	LW	Colton Dach	62	11	18	29	WHL	Saskatoon
2003-01-12	C	Jayden Grubbe	57	6	23	29	WHL	Red Deer

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We will be providing you updates every week so be sure to check back every Monday or Tuesday for updated stats and highlights!

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To comment, please do via Twitter @TheOilKnight